A ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel has been announced. Gavin Drake explores whether, after 15 long months of fighting, peace could be restored to the Holy Land
Media organisations around the world are reporting on the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas announced yesterday by the Qatari, US and UK governments.
Does this mean that the war in Israel and Gaza is finally over?
Not quite, but this week’s news is the best to emerge from the Middle East in over a year.
The ceasefire announcement is good news, but it is also tentative and fragile. The Israeli government’s cabinet has yet to ratify it - they are meeting to discuss it as I write - and while there is much hope that they will agree to it, there are some extremists who oppose any deal at all with Hamas.
How did the war begin?
The Israel-Hamas War began on 7 October 2023, after Hamas fighters broke through the border barrier between Gaza and southern Israel in an unprecedented attack on the civillian population. Actual casualty figures vary depending on sources; but around 1,189 people in Israel were killed, a further 7,500 injured and 251 taken hostage.
After this, Israel’s military went into Gaza with the expressed purpose of eliminating Hamas and rescuing Israeli hostages. Over the past 15 months, estimates put the number of dead in Gaza as somewhere between 50,000 and 70,000. Circumstances on the ground mean that these numbers are impossible to verify.
We should pray for the release of hostages and for honest and transparent negotiations
While the war in Gaza began as a result of the 7 October attacks, it is only the latest in a long-running conflict which goes back decades.
What does the ceasefire deal entail?
Until the Israeli government confirm the deal, details are still provisional. What we do know is that the deal will operate in three phases.
The first phase, expected to begin at 10am GMT on Sunday 19 January, would see both parties cease fighting. Over the next six weeks, 33 of the remaining women and children held hostage in Gaza will be released - three on the first day, and then four every week after until the sixth week, when all remaining phase one hostages will be set free.
In the sixth week, Israel will release 1,000 Palestinian prisoners. These will be people arrested by Israel on 8 October 2023, but who did not take part in the 7 October attack.
Other reports say that 100 Palestinians convicted of serious crimes like murder will also be released. Under Israeli law, any such agreement would need the approval of Israel’s Supreme Court. The Supreme Court will hear any challenge swiftly.
In the first phase, Israeli forces in Gaza will begin to move towards the borders. This will allow Gazans to return to their homes – or what is left of them. The Rafah crossing into Egypt will reopen, allowing some 600 truckloads of aid to enter Gaza each day.
If the first phase holds, detailed negotiations on implementing the second phase will begin on the 16th day. It is already known that the second phase should see Hamas release male hostages aged under 50; and that Israeli forces will completely withdraw from Gaza. At that point, the ceasefire will become permanent.
The third phase is expected to see the return of the bodies of any remaining hostages and the lifting of economic restrictions on Gaza. The rebuilding of Gaza would begin in this phase. As with phase two, the details will be subject to negotiation.
If Hamas have agreed to release the hostages, why don’t they do it straight away?
The civilian and military infrastructure in Gaza has been effectively wiped out through a combination of 15 months of heavy bombardment from Israel, Hamas rockets falling short and street-to-street fighting. The hostages are not held in a central location but are believed to be held in homes across Gaza. Telephone and other communication facilities in Gaza have been damaged, and so organising the release of hostages is difficult. Politically, releasing the hostages requires the building up of confidence.
US President Joe Biden and President-Elect Donald Trump are both claiming credit for this ceasefire deal. Which one of them got the job done?
The answer is both, as well as the governments of the UK, Egypt and Qatar, among others.
The proposal that forms the basis of this ceasefire was first put forward by President Biden and his Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, in May last year. In recent weeks, both Biden and Blinken have held conversations with senior figures on both sides, and the British Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, has visited Qatar to meet with the protagonists. The push to get the deal done has been helped by Trump, whose envoy has worked with Blinken and others to get the deal over the line.
The question of who gets the credit is of little important to the people of Gaza, the wider Palestinian community and Israeli citizens. What they want is a peaceful and secure future.
Does the ceasefire deal mean an end to the Israeli – Palestinian conflict?
No. Gaza is just one part of Palestinian land. It is geographically separated from the rest of the internationally recognised Palestinian borders, located in the West Bank. The de facto Palestinian government, the Palestinian Authority, are in political control of much of the West Bank, and are responsible for security in locations including Bethlehem, Ramallah and Jericho.
Much of the remainder of the West Bank is still under Israeli security control. Israeli settlers have created outposts in various parts of the territory, hampering negotiations for a future Palestinian State. Many of these settlers do not agree that there should be a Palestinian state at all.
The ceasefire announcement is good news, but it is also tentative and fragile
The response of ordinary Israelis to the 7 October attacks has highlighted the stark differences of opinion: many feel that it would not have happened if Israel and Palestinians had agreed a two-state solution to the conflict; while others feel it demonstrates why Israel should continue to control the Palestinian areas.
Israel’s democratic system of proportional representation gives right-wing politicians a disproportionate influence in government. International pressure will be key to ensuring that the Israel-Hamas ceasefire progresses towards a long-lasting peace deal in the region.
Haven’t we been here before?
Yes. Earlier ceasefires during the current Israel-Hamas war came to an end after continued rocket fire from Hamas into Israel. Hamas is now seriously depleted; Hezbollah, and its allies in Iran, have been seriously degraded. So, there is real hope that Hamas will be motivated to sustain any new ceasefire agreement.
What have the churches in Israel and Palestine said about the ceasefire?
On matters like this, church leaders tend to speak with one voice through the regional ecumenical body – the Patriarchs and Heads of Churches in Jerusalem. So far, they have not issued a statement. In the complex political situation in which they operate, they are likely to be waiting to hear the response of the Israeli cabinet before speaking publicly.
How can Christians respond?
As Psalm 122:6 extols, we should pray for the peace of Jerusalem and the surrounding areas. In particular, we should pray that the Israeli cabinet agrees to the ceasefire deal, and that it holds.
We should pray for the release of hostages and for honest and transparent negotiations and a real peace in which both Israelis and Palestinians are able to live in security and prosperity.
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